How To Increase Your Odds At Blackjack
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Blackjack Probability and Blackjack Odds
How To Increase Your Odds At Blackjack Betting
- Blackjack is a hugely popular casino game. Both gambling veterans and casual players know how it works. The game is also popular even for people who are not into gambling.
- The following ten strategy tips are for casual blackjack players who want to increase their odds of winning while having fun playing blackjack. THE BEST 10 TIPS ON HOW TO WIN AT BLACKJACK: Play games with liberal playing rules; Learn the basic playing strategy; Use a strategy card; Avoid making the insurance wager; Ignore your fellow players.
Remember, stick to games that pay 3:2, and you’ll increase your winnings. Finding blackjack variants where the dealer stays on a soft 17 will also improve your odds at the blackjack table. It takes the house’s ability to catch up to better hands. That slight difference will swing the odds in your favor.
To fully understand the game of blackjack, you must understand and master blackjack odds. It's crucial to know how the casino gains its edge and how it helps them win. It's also important to understand blackjack odds such as the odds of hitting a 10 or the odds of being dealt a blackjack. You can read over these blackjack odds charts to help understand the logistics behind blackjack.
Casino and Dealer Advantage in Blackjack
In most casino games of blackjack, the house advantage (the dealer advantage) is ~ 8%. The house gets this advantage by the dealer being the last player to act. By acting last, all other players have already made their decisions and could quite possibly bust before the dealer has his turn.
By using correct blackjack basic strategy, you can turn the casino edge in blackjack from 7%-8% down to 0.5%. If you correctly use advanced card counting techniques, you can often change blackjack odds and give yourself the advantage over the casino. Manipulating the house odds to your favor is the reason most casinos don't allow card counters to play blackjack.
How To Increase Your Odds At Blackjack Odds
Probability of Busting on a Hit
It's very important to know the probability of your hand busting when you are holding any total in the game of blackjack. The following odds chart shows the blackjack odds of busting, depending on your current hand value:
| Hand Value | % Bust If You Hit |
|---|---|
| 21 | 100% |
| 20 | 92% |
| 19 | 85% |
| 18 | 77% |
| 17 | 69% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 12 | 31% |
| 11 or Less | 0% |
Two-Card Count Frequencies
How To Increase Your Odds At Blackjack Vegas World
This interesting blackjack odds chart is the two card count frequency chart. This chart shows the percentage chance that you will be dealt a hand in each given value range. The most important frequencey to note is the chance of being dealt a natural blackjack (natural 21 value. The odds of being dealt a natural blackjack are merely 4.8%. Following this chart you will see that the most common two card hand, at 38.7%, is a hand totaling 1-16, which is considered a decision hand.
| Two Card Count | % Frequency |
|---|---|
| Natural 21 | 4.8% |
| Hard Standing (17-20) | 30.0 % |
| Decision Hands (1-16) | 38.7% |
| No Bust | 26.5% |
| TOTAL | 100.0% |
Dealer Final Hand Probabilities
This blackjack odds chart shows the dealer final hand probability. These are the percentages that the dealer will end up with a hand totaling each corresponding value (up to 16). Read over this chart to understand the odds that the dealer has to make his final hand.
| Dealer Final Hand Value | % | Cumulative % Total |
|---|---|---|
| Natural 21 | 4.82% | 4.83% |
| 21 (3 or More Cards) | 7.36% | 12.19% |
| 20 | 17.58% | 29.77% |
| 19 | 13.48% | 43.25% |
| 18 | 13.81% | 57.06% |
| 17 | 14.58% | 71.64% |
| 16 | 28.36% | 100.00% |
Player Advantage vs. Dealer Up Card
The first two columns in this odds chart explain the dealer's chance of busting, depending on the up card that he is showing. You should note that the dealer has the highest chance of busting when he is showing a 5. The third column in this chart shows the player advantage of using basic strategy, compared to each up card the dealer is showing. You can see that the player has the highest advantage of 23.9%, when the dealer is showing a 5. When the dealer is showing any card that is 9 value or higher, the player is in the negative advantage range.
| Dealer Up Card | Dealer Bust % | Player Advantage % with Basic Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 35.30% | 9.8% |
| 3 | 37.56% | 13.4% |
| 4 | 40.28% | 18.0% |
| 5 | 42.89% | 23.2% |
| 6 | 42.08% | 23.9% |
| 7 | 25.99% | 14.3% |
| 8 | 23.86% | 5.4% |
| 9 | 23.34% | -4.3% |
| J,Q,K | 21.43% | -16.9% |
| A | 11.65% | -16.0% |
Effects of Removing Cards from a Deck
When looking at the odds of removing certain cards from a 52-card deck, some cards have a much greater effect on blackjack odds. To create the strongest card counting system ever invented, you would have to incorporate all of these slight and subtle differences into the numbers to be a completely accurate system.
Removing every 5 from a deck cards would make the largest impact of improving your blackjack odds, as a player. On the other hand, removing every Ace from a deck of cards would make the largest impact on improving the odds for the casino.
| Card | % Effect of Removal |
|---|---|
| 2 | 0.40% |
| 3 | 0.43% |
| 4 | 0.52% |
| 5 | 0.67% |
| 6 | 0.45% |
| 7 | 0.30% |
| 8 | 0.01% |
| 9 | -0.15% |
| 10 | -0.51% |
| A | -0.59% |
See also:
You’ve probably heard of the MIT blackjack team, or have seen the movie “21” that tells their story. If you haven’t, they were a team of students and ex-students from MIT who used card counting to beat casinos at blackjack. Most people think the concept of card counting is complicated, involving difficult math and statistical analysis. However, the basic concepts of counting cards are very simple, and with a little practice, you too can become an expert card counter.
Basic Blackjack Strategy
“Basic blackjack strategy” is pictured below. It is a table that considers every possible scenario in blackjack, and tells the player when to hit, stand, split, or double down. By following this strategy, the player is only at an estimated 0.5% disadvantage to the casino. By counting cards, the player can change that from a 0.5% disadvantage to a 2% advantage. When you are at even the slightest advantage, you want to start placing much larger bets to make money in the long run.
Hi-Lo Method of Counting Cards
The most basic method of card counting is called “Hi-Lo.” There are three ranges of cards that are important in Hi-Lo, and each range has its own value. Cards 2-6 have a value of +1, cards 7-9 have a value of zero, and cards 10-A have a value of -1. As the cards are dealt, use these values to establish a “count.”
An example hand is shown below. Hand one has a count of 0, because 8’s are neutral. Hand two has a count of zero because a 2 is +1 and a jack is -1. Hand three has a count of +2 because both the 2 and 6 are +1. Hand four has a count of zero because a 4 is +1 and a queen is -1. Finally, the dealer’s up-card is an ace, which is -1. By adding all the hands together, we have a count of +1. The player begins to gain an advantage when the count gets more and more positive. A very positive count means that there are more tens and aces, which leads to more twenties and blackjacks.
Determining the “True Count”
How To Increase Your Odds At Blackjack Betting
Most casinos use more than one deck in the “shoe” when dealing blackjack. Therefore, we must establish a “true count” that considers how many decks are involved. To do this, you simply take the current count and divide it by how many decks you believe are left in the shoe. For example, let’s say there are six decks at the start of the shoe. After roughly 52 cards have been dealt, the count is +10. Divide ten by the number of decks remaining (five) to get a true count of +2. For each increase of the true count by one, the player gains 0.5% of an advantage. Since the true count is +2, the player gains 1% of an advantage and now has a 0.5% edge over the casino. Now you’re in business! If you can follow basic blackjack strategy while also counting cards, you can become a master of blackjack! To learn more about the strategy and statistics involved in blackjack, visit the link below.
Blackjack Odds Chart
References